BMF Wealth Investment Outlook #2

BMF Wealth Investment Outlook #2

June 2017

RETHINK • RE-EVALUATE • RESET

We have recently returned from one of our most outstanding business trips around the world with a slightly different strategic mindset in our investment philosophy.

What we have taken away from 46 individual meetings and a 3 day Strategic Investment Conference shows clearly that BMF WEALTH is on the right path to protect and grow your wealth. Never being satisfied and never complacent, we can always strive to do better by taking on board the information we have learnt from this trip.

It is TIME to RETHINK, RE-EVALUATE and RESET not only the global economic situation, but your own economic wellbeing by taking some strategic changes in a different direction over a period of time.

We have learnt and reaffirmed our thinking that:

  • The USA is under pressure financially
  • The ONE BELT ONE ROAD project (OBOR) is opening up Eurasia and beyond
  • Europe is Re-Setting itself
  • Interest rates are going to surprise us all
  • The USA FED, STATE and Private DEBT is approximately $100 Trillion and can NEVER be fully repaid
  • Student Debt in the USA is over $1 Trillion and too can NEVER be repaid
  • US Auto Loans are excessive with 1 in 4 loans considered subprime
  • INDIA will eventually take over from CHINA
  • 10,000 Baby Boomers are turning 65 years old EVERY DAY in the USA alone
  • These Baby Boomers (3.65 Million per annum) will soon be drawing their pension funds and being forced to sell down their assets
  • Consumer spending is deteriorating due to demographics and low wage growth
  • Within 3 years (but probably within 18 months) the USA could be in recession
  • 38% Of American workers’ current jobs will be Automated within the next 30 years
  • In the USA, 1600 stores closed in 2016, and in the 4 months to end April 2017 some 2600 stores have closed

Our goal at BMF WEALTH, is to get to the other side of the GREAT RESET and beyond and then benefit in the greatest bull market ever. Over the past 2 years we have been de-risking portfolios across the board and our own returns have far exceeded the market. Our client portfolios are well diversified across asset classes, custodians, currencies and geographies. We have plans to strategically diversify even more over the next 6 months.

We and our clients cannot be complacent in this world in order to protect our assets and wealth.

But there is so much more to discuss with you that will eventually affect all portfolios:

  • USA GDP growth will probably slow by up to 50% while Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia and Emerging Markets should grow
  • Debt in China is 150%-200% of GDP. All corporate debt is funded by Chinese Banks and if these banks falter there will be a massive effect in Australia.
  • 80% of the UK top 100 companies’ sales are outside the UK – the Pound is cheap.
  • Business credit demand is not merely slowing, but falling
  • FED debt is probably to rise substantially from 107% to 125% of GDP
  • China consumes 50% of commodities sold around the world but only 1% of the coffee market!
  • Can Australian Banks survive a 20% residential property market decline and a 20% stock market decline?

We at BMF WEALTH never follow the crowd. We operate independently, we think independently and strongly believe that DIVERSIFICATION in every way is mandatory. We have the best platforms in Zurich, Geneva, London and New York and are about to enter into a relationship with one of the most prestigious Singaporean banks. Our access to international economists, bankers, advisers, fund managers and their respective opinions are unprecedented.

We offer our clients not just direct equities, but an entrée into the best funds around the world most of which are not generally accessible in Australia. We have utilized some of the best Alternate funds recently that have outperformed and our direct property investments both in Australia and Globally have done consistently well for years.

We look forward to meeting with all our clients over the next few months to ensure that our diversification plan is in place and to ensure where necessary that the goals are RESET.

Our BMF WEALTH clients are on track with our RESET policy and are being well looked after.

To all others, who is RETHINKING, RE-EVALUATING and RESETTING your portfolio?

One thing is for sure, that a paradigm shift in investment thinking is on us all for decades to come!

Barry Mendel
Chairman

Jill Nes
Chief Executive Officer

Brad Mendel
Client Director

Justin Gaywood
Client Director

Brad Mendel

About The Author - Brad Mendel

Brad specialises in global portfolio management, investment analysis and family office services. He joined the BMF Wealth team in 2011 for two years before embarking to New York. After receiving Wall Street experience for over 3 years, he returned to BMF Wealth in 2016.

Brad has a Bachelor of Commerce from UNSW and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants Australia. He is qualified with ASIC’s prescribed training for Financial Planning Professionals in Australia.



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