A Tale of 3 Cities

• 30 May 2026
• Barry Mendel

After spending almost 2 weeks doing research in Zurich, Geneva and London, we return to Australia invigorated and enthused on the investment opportunities around the world.

After making almost 100 pages of notes and undertaking 47 meetings it would be impossible to summarise it all into a newsletter, but the next best thing is to set out the important points, and more detail will be explained should you wish to meet with us.

All 3 Cities were different experiences, and we met with many exceptional people such as Directors of many Private Banks, Leading Economists, Executive Fund Managers, Tax Accountants, Property Consultants, Private Equity Advisers, International Trustees, and dare I say it, Gold and Silver experts.

We were granted access to the best of the best and none failed to disappoint. There were times that we were overwhelmed with the presentations that were so good and so professional and always delivered with total confidence and deep knowledge. We have been doing these international trips for almost 40 years and the information that we learn enables us to pass it onto our clients’ portfolios and the excellent returns we have achieved over the many years.

The trend of the various advice was similar, but the details and reasons varied from meeting to meeting.

I will set out some of the discussions in point form for easy reference. The points set out are as presented to us in our meetings and some are not necessarily in agreement with our views.

Before acting on any of them please discuss with us to see if your risk profile is supportive of any decisions.

1. If/when there is de-escalation in the Middle East, oil will come back to about $80, however if there is a stalemate oil will range between $90 to $150 per barrel
2. Europe is now spending on Defence and Infrastructure which means an overweight position in Commodities
3. Almost all equity fund managers are spending on acquiring Gold Bullion which is on average about 5%-7% of their respective portfolios
4. The USD will continue to fall over the next 12 months while the Swiss franc will continue to strengthen.
5. Central Banks around the world are increasing their Gold holdings while Technology Stocks and AI are going to drive investment for the next decade
6. Luxury goods such as Watches and Cars are good investments.
7. Cybersecurity is growing globally
8. Generally, advisers saw Gold going to USD 5000 by year end with higher targets being achieved over the next 5 years
9. We are in a Commodity Super Cycle for Precious Metals, Copper, Energy, Agriculture and Uranium and others
10. Gold equities have been disappointing compared to the Bullion price which will result in large Gold miners acquiring smaller gold companies
11. AI is and will be affecting white collar labour market
12. China is reducing their holdings of US Treasuries and putting the money into gold
13. Only own quality stocks, preferably with a dividend yield
14. Water is becoming a very important commodity especially for data centres.
15. There is an enormous amount of Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) being spent by large corporations which will drive the expansion of companies and the economy
16. Most portfolio managers have not decided to exit the markets as they feel that there is more risk being outside the market than in the market
17. There is not going to be a recession as long as the Iran war does not go on for too long
18. The general consensus for interest rates is that the USA and the UK will be on hold until the year end while Europe will probably have 2 increases this year.
19. We are entering a powerful and productive investment cycle led by AI, Technology and Defence. Probably the most powerful since the 1990’s
20. One of the economists was not concerned with the USA $39 Trillion in debt as the USA has made good use of the debt in Infrastructure, Defence, AI, and Technology compared to other major countries that have wasted their money. Also, the USA is now energy independent. Anecdotally, what should keep all of us up at night is that the 1st $1 Trillion of USA Debt took 200 years to accumulate, while the 39th $1 Trillion of Debt took only 200 days to accumulate.
21. Follow the money where the CAPEX is going such as Japan, Asia, USA, and South Korea-Amazon will spend $200 Billion per annum on CAPEX while Microsoft is spending $190 Billion
22. Relatively positive on resource currencies including the AUD
23. Banks are not a good investment other than one large USA and one large European bank
24. Healthcare is a segment gaining a lot of interest because of AI and Technology
25. Opportunities in Japan and the Yen is cheap
26. The UK as a market is still cheap and trading at a 40% discount to its historic values
27. Our Global Private Equity Fund should be back to normal by year end while our Global income Fund is giving returns of approximately 8%+ p.a.
28. The Next Generation Infrastructure Fund which we like is expected to return about 10%+ p.a in USD
29. One investment that should be owned and discussed is a Royalty Fund.
30. UK commercial property is still sluggish and will remain so until UK interest rates reduce. On the other hand, UK Residential Multi-Family properties outside London are cheap. The UK economy is starting to look better at current values and there are 700,000 jobs available. The degree of pessimism in the UK is overdone.We have returned to Australia after the Budget presentation last week. This is a budget for wealth destruction and to ensure that the younger generation will never be able to create the wealth made by our generation. It is a budget for Socialism. Should this budget be passed in Parliament it will create pain for all especially in the area of capital gains and Trusts. To say that we are concerned would be an understatement. We have been thinking and debating the alternatives internally and while it is far too early to make any rash decisions, our initial thinking is along the lines of owning investments for a longer period and having even more investments internationally. This we can explain to you when the dust settles and we know the final outcome of the budget.